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The Asthma Care Return-on-Investment Calculator: How to use it

On May 22, 2008, Rosanna Coffey made a presentation in a Webinar entitled The Asthma Care Return-on-Investment Calculator: How To Use It. This is the text version of the event's slide presentation.  Please click here to access the PowerPoint Slides.

The Asthma Care Return-on-Investment Calculator: How to use it
Ginger Smith Carls, M.A. and Rosanna Coffey, Ph.D.
Thomson Reuters (formerly Medstat) 

May 22, 2008

On the top of the slide are the logos for the Department of Health & Human Services and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ).

Slide 2

Outline 

This presentation uses a template with a blue background and a header with the AHRQ and Department of Health & Human Services logos on the left.

  • Brief review of calculator
  • How to use the calculator
  • Data
  • Interpretation of results
  • Limitations and solutions

Slide 3

Review of the Calculator

Slide 4

Purpose

  • To help policy makers (States) with program design for asthma care quality improvement
  • To estimate financial return based on evidence
  • To summarize a large literature (52 studies)
  • To translate utilization-based results into costs
  • To summarize impacts based on user interests

Slide 5

Methods

The sum of Evidence of Utilization Impact and Cost Data is Financial Impact.

•  Definitions:

Asthma care programs typically follow NAEPP (National Asthma Education and Prevention Program) guidelines

  • Patient education
  • Provider activities

Slide 6

How to use the calculator: Data

Slide 7

Data needed: Overview

  • Number of eligible asthma patients
  • Baseline utilization and costs
  • Evidence
  • Cost to implement the program

Slide 8

Data needed: Eligible asthma patients

Options: A. Calculate number eligible using own data (i.e. medical claims) or B. Use calculator to estimate eligible patients

More details:

•  Calculate number eligible using own data (i.e. medical claims)

•  Define criteria for eligible asthma patients. Example:

  • Patients with at least one asthma diagnosis
  • Patients with persistent asthma

•  NCQA HEDIS definition: http://www.ncqa.org

•  See Tables 8 and 10 in detailed report

Slide 9

Data needed: Eligible asthma patients

•  Use calculator to estimate eligible asthma patients

Data Fields

  • Percent of enrollees in each age/gender cell
  • Percent enrollees of each race/ethnicity
  • Total number of enrollees

•  Options

  • Asthma severity
  • Type of health coverage (Medicaid or employer-sponsored)

•  How calculator estimates eligible patients:

  • Asthma prevalence rates come from MarketScan TM Medicaid or Commercial Claims databases
  • Prevalence rates are adjusted by all of the demographic and asthma severity information entered by user, based on evidence from MarketScan TM

Slide 10

Data needed: Baseline

Baseline = the use and cost patterns of program participants before the asthma care program

Data Fields

Use

  • Emergency department visits per patient per year
  • Hospital stays per patient per year
  • Outpatient visits per patient per year

Cost (payment amount)

  • Emergency department cost per visit
  • Hospital cost per stay
  • Outpatient cost per visit
  • Asthma medication cost per patient per year
  • Asthma-related ancillary service (lab, imaging, etc.) cost per patient

Slide 11

Data needed: Baseline

Data Fields (continued)

Missed work or school (optional)

  • Number of missed work or school days per patient per year
  • Cost of a missed work or school day

Advice for calculating data fields:

  • Decide what use & cost components to include
  • It's okay to combine use & cost from different sources
  • Just make sure measures are calculated the same way for the same population

Slide 12

Data needed: Baseline

Source of default data:

MarketScan Claims Database (2005)

•  Medicaid

  • 8 states
  • Geographically dispersed

•  Employer-sponsored health insurance

  • Over 100 large self-insured employers
  • Over 15 million lives
  • Geographically balanced

National Health Interview Survey (2003)

  • Number of missed work or school days due to asthma
  • U.S. estimate

Bureau of Labor Statistics (2006)

  • Average wage rate
  • Federal poverty line (for value of missed work day for Medicaid recipients)

Slide 13

Data needed: Evidence

Data Fields

Average annual percent change in:

  • Number of asthma-related hospital stays
  • Number of asthma-related ER visits
  • Number of asthma-related outpatient visits
  • Payments for outpatient prescription drugs
  • Payments for asthma-related ancillary services
  • Number of missed work days (optional)
  • Number of missed school days (optional)

Where to find these data:

  • Results from our meta-analysis of the literature is in the calculator
  • You may enter these if you have results from a pilot study

Slide 14

Data needed: Evidence

Example calculation of percent change in visits

The chart below indicates that the Rate at baseline (Before) for the Treatment Group is 10 (A) and the Rate at the end (After) is 5 (B). The Rate at baseline (Before) for the Control Group is 10 (C) and the Rate at the end (After) is 8 (B)

  • No control group : (B - A )/A*100 = - 50%
  • Randomized controlled study: (B – D)/D*100 = - 38%
  • Statistically controlled study:

Percent change in treatment - percent change in control =

(B-A)/A*100 – (D-C)/C*100 = - 50 - (- 20) = - 30%

Slide 15

Data needed: Evidence in calculator

ED visits

Children only: 13,213 Total patients and 21 Number of studies

Adults only: 714 Total patients and 11 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 8,812 Total patients and 9 Number of studies

TOTAL: 22,739 Total patients and 40 Number of studies

Hospitalizations

Children only: 17,575 Total patients and 19 Number of studies

Adults only: 7,161 Total patients and 9 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 2,526 Total patients and 7 Number of studies

TOTAL: 27,262 Total patients and 33 Number of studies

Outpatient visits

Children only: 20,229 Total patients and 18 Number of studies

Adults only: 6,986 Total patients and 4 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 1,888 Total patients and 5 Number of studies

TOTAL: 29,103 Total patients and 25 Number of studies

Missed work/school days

Children only: 4,172 Total patients and 11 Number of studies

Adults only: 521 Total patients and 5 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 443 Total patients and 3 Number of studies

TOTAL: 5,136 Total patients and 17 Number of studies

Medication Cost

Children only: 486 Total patients and 2 Number of studies

Adults only: 301 Total patients and 3 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 13,580 Total patients and 5 Number of studies

TOTAL: 14,367 Total patients and 10 Number of studies

Ancillary service cost

Children only: 61 Total patients and 1 Number of studies

Adults only: 148 Total patients and 2 Number of studies

Both children and adults: 0 Total patients and 0 Number of studies

TOTAL: 209 Total patients and 3 Number of studies

Notes: Total studies can be less than the sum of the columns because some studies reported results separately for adults and children

Total patients includes both treatment and control patients

Slide 16

Data needed: Program cost and design

Data fields

  • Annual cost per participant
  • Number of years until full impact (i.e. program “ramp-up”)
  • Discount rate
  • Duration of program

Questions to consider

  • How to choose a discount rate?
  • How to estimate annual cost per participant?

Slide 17

Data needed: Wrap-up

•  Types of data needed

  • Number of eligible asthma patients
  • Baseline utilization and costs
  • Evidence
  • Program cost and design

•  Putting it all together

  • Ideally, find data from a single source
  • If not possible, be sure that the underlying populations that generated the data are similar

•  Use claims data to obtain number of eligible asthma patients and their baseline utilization and costs

•  Find evidence that studied a similar population

Slide 18

Data needed: Discussion

•  Ideas for data sources?

  • Evidence
  • Number of eligible asthma patients
  • Baseline utilization and cost
  • Program cost

•  What technical assistance do you need from AHRQ to find data?

•  Questions?

Slide 19

How to use the calculator

Interpretation of results

Slide 20

Example results

•  Results from default data

  • Nationwide
  • Program lasts for 5 years
  • Takes 2 years to ramp up
  • Discount rate is 3%
  • Evidence from randomized controlled studies

Slide 21

Results using default data

Not all options are shown

Option (1)

Type of Insurance: Medicaid

Age Groups: Adults and children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $395

Medical costs included: All payments

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 1.97 million

Results

Net Present value (per participant): ($1,552)

ROI: $0.14

Break Even Program Cost: $56.04

Option (2)

Type of Insurance: Medicaid

Age Groups: Children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $395

Medical costs included: All payments

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 850 thousand

Results

Net Present value (per participant): ($1,228)

ROI: $0.32

Break Even Program Cost: $126.76

Option (3)

Type of Insurance: Medicaid

Age Groups: Children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: All payments

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 850 thousand

Results

Net Present value (per participant): $123

ROI: $1.27

Break Even Program Cost: $126.76

Option (4)

Type of Insurance: Employer sponsored

Age Groups: Children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: All payments

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 1 million

Results

Net Present value (per participant): ($60)

ROI: $0.87

Break Even Program Cost: $66.97

Slide 22

Results using default data

Option (5)

Type of Insurance: Employer sponsored

Age Groups: Children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma with acute visits

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: All payments

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 200 thousand

Results

Net Present value (per participant): $822

ROI: $2.80

Break Even Program Cost: $279.54

Option (6)

Type of Insurance: Employer sponsored

Age Groups: Children

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma with acute visits

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: Only plan costs

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 200 thousand

Results

Net Present value (per participant): $561

ROI: $2.22

Break Even Program Cost: $222.39

Option (7)

Type of Insurance: Employer sponsored

Age Groups: Adults

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: Only plan costs

Productivity costs included: No

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 2.2 million

Results

Net Present value (per participant): ($812)

ROI: ($0.77)

Break Even Program Cost: ($77.30)

Option (8)

Type of Insurance: Employer sponsored

Age Groups: Adults

Asthma Severity: Persistent asthma

Annual Program Cost: $100

Medical costs included: Only plan costs

Productivity costs included: Yes

Number of eligible patients with asthma (nationwide): 2.2 million

Results

Net Present value (per participant): $2,264

ROI: $5.94

Break Even Program Cost: $594.44

Slide 23

How to use calculator

•  Forecast financial impact

•  Assess impact of key assumptions about proposed program

  • Examine alternative types of programs to assess tradeoffs
  • Are assumptions “reasonable” compared to other evidence?

•  Estimate “cost hurdle” needed to break-even

•  Negotiate with vendors

•  Observe components of calculator in planning an evaluation of an asthma care program

Slide 24

Uses: How it helps with policy

  • Michigan Pediatric Asthma Coalition: Funding decision for a county asthma program
  • New York Department of Health: Evaluation components for a housing improvement project that should reduce asthma symptoms
  • Iowa Medicaid Medical Officer: Considering value of asthma care improvements for Medicaid

At the bottom of the slide is an arrow pointing from graphics of literature toward money.

Slide 25

Limitations and possible solutions

Slide 26

Caveats

  • Limited evidence for some components:
  • Few studies (7) reported program cost – wide range:
  • Average = $395 dollars per patient per year
  • Min = $81 automated general educational mailing
  • Max = $989 program for highest cost patients
  • Few studies (10) reported asthma medication costs:
  • Studies without a control group reported larger increases in medication costs
  • Baseline asthma medication costs varied
  • AHRQ does not plan updates at this time

Slide 27

Caveats & Solutions

Problems:

  • Literature continues to grow
  • Baseline data becomes obsolete
  • Cost estimates are for 2006

Solutions for users:

  • Monitor literature post April 2007 & input results
  • Use your own data to populate the calculator
  • Inflate findings beyond 2006, using the CPI-M

Slide 28

Discussion

  • Other limitations, concerns?
  • Ways the calculator could be made more useful?
  • Questions about interpretation of results?

Slide 29

Additional assistance:

 Technical Assistance:
•  Margie Shofer, Marjorie.Shofer@ahrq.hhs.gov
Senior Program Analyst, Office of Communications and Knowledge Transfer

Copy of calculator or questions about the tool:
•  Please e-mail AHRQ_quality_tools@academyhealth.org

For more information about AHRQ Quality Tools:
•  http://www.academyhealth.org/ahrq/qualitytools/

 

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